Viruses Activity Model - Based on energy conservation laws of thermodynamics. (Mathematical model)

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Viruses (neither living nor inanimate) are unique case that is relatively more straightforward to analyze using energy conservation laws, compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses.

Viruses Activity Model - Based on energy conservation laws of thermodynamics. (Mathematical model) image 1

Viruses have a built-in entropy mechanism (disorder) that makes them more resilient but requires them to invest energy in modifications—an evasion tactic. The idea that there is an effect of solar flares cycles (every 11 years) on viral diseases is not new. The theory and model of energy conservation I propose regarding viruses are unique and original. Link: Sunspot Cycle and Human Health Precisely because the viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis according to the laws of thermodynamics (energy conservation) are relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses. Link: Solar flare (Wikipedia)

Except for the Ebola virus (1976) and COVID-19, all other outbreaks of viral epidemics, over 100 years, occurred close to the peaks of solar flares. Imagine a deadly viral disease like the Ebola virus, with a contagious ability like COVID-19 - the world would collapse! According to the model I present here for the first time, such a situation is unlikely. 

 

Viruses Activity Model - Introduction.

LinkThermodynamics (Wikipedia) 

For the first time, this model presents an entirely different perception of viral activities from an altogether different perspective, using energy conservation laws of thermodynamics. Looking at viral mutations as a completely random process is incorrect. Viruses have a built-in entropy mechanism (disorder) that makes them more resilient but, on the other hand, requires them to invest in genetic modifications—a tactic of evasion and camouflage.

  • This model will enable researchers better understand biochemical phenomena regarding viruses. The mathematical analysis of the development of viral epidemics will take on another new dimension and allow for much better predictions.
  • The seemingly bizarre behavior in which the COVID-19 outbreak occurred led me to conclude that we ignore an essential critical dimension in understanding the development of outbreaks of viral epidemics-Their varying energy levels.
  • Compared to other pathogens (including various parasites), viruses do not have an independent energy cellular organ (mitochondria); therefore, they depend entirely on the ability to penetrate the host cell for genetic replication. (Using the host's energy)
  • Each virus comprises a pool of biological molecules, including genetic material (single-stranded or double-stranded D.N.A. or R.N.A.) and related proteins. (many scientists do not consider it alive) By itself, the virus lacks any independent function outside the host body, so it must obey the laws of conservation of energy, which are reflected in the laws of the branch of physics called thermodynamics.

 

Base assumptions, consistent with the first law and second laws of thermodynamics:

Energetic systems can always be described using their kinetic energy + their potential energy.

  • The laws of thermodynamics and energy conservation are always valid, but very complicated to apply to living things, because living things, unlike viruses, have independent energy production.
  • Viruses are (neither living nor inanimate). A virus is a parasite, devoid of independent, energetic ability, that uses the host cell and is, therefore, the exception that meets the criteria that allow the application of the laws of thermodynamics. 

The first law of thermodynamics extends the law of energy conservation. "Energy does not disappear and is not created out of nothing." (From Wikipedia)

  • Precisely because the viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis at the level of the laws of thermodynamics is relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses.
  • Each virus has a kind of "energetic fingerprint" expressed in constant, unchangeable energy without an external energy source. The host cell is hijacked, but it cannot change the energetic properties of the virus.
  • Looking at a single virus is like looking at any synchronized virus group. (Similar to a beehive or a colony of bacteria)

 

Description of the basic model.

The energetic signature of each virus is divided into two parts: (Since these are entirely different scales, they have constant coefficients that make them uniform energy units.)

At any given time (t), the virus has given energy, which is the result of kinetic energy (infectivity) and potential energy (violence).

  • Kinetic energy is expressed in the virus' ability to proliferate.
  • The potential energy is reflected in the level of "virus violence" and its ability to cause acute illness.

On the other hand, the virus must regularly invest energy in survival by creating new mutations.

  • The virus's energy allocates over some time (t) to create new mutations. The result comes later in (t + 1) and is reflected in the improved ability to spread the virus.

The premise is that entropy (disorder) manifested in improved infectivity is far more critical than the violence of the virus.

  • Therefore the virus is willing to sacrifice in its violence, but not in its ability to spread. The solution results from built-in simultaneous optimization, which should not surprise anyone.

In a given wave of illness, the violence of the virus does not change. (The derivative of the potential energy by time is equal to 0)

 

Variants (mutations) and the second law of thermodynamics.

The second law of thermodynamics - a system will always aspire to the highest level of entropy (disorder) and the lowest energy level. This law is mainly expressed in chemical reactions. (From Wikipedia)

  • mutation in viruses is an expression of entropy. (Disorder) The virus strives to spread and, in the process, descend to the lowest possible energy level. To spread and increase circulation, it must give up something. (To conserve its total energy.)
  • New viruses are not created "out of nothing." They must have external energy that will activate their mutation mechanism.
  • The "host" cell allows the virus to replicate itself, but it does not provide the virus with the energy needed to produce mutations (variants). The energy to produce mutations must come from the environment or arrive at the expense of existing energy, which is reflected in the slowdown in the spread of the virus. External energy may be electromagnetic radiation. A notable example is the cosmic radiation of solar flares.

A solar flare is an intense eruption of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere.

 

Solar flares cycles over a hundred years explain the eruption of most viral pandemics.

During World Wars, no significant viral outbreaks were recorded

image1

The impact of solar flares on creating new variants is very substantial.

Link: Top 50 solar flares of the year 20XX

The virus can absorb energy only at specific frequencies (synchronized with it precisely.) Not every solar flare charges the energy of the virus. However, the probability is higher when there are many solar flares (at the peak of solar flare cycles).

  • Intense solar flares, in the months of October-December 2021, with a relatively small-time difference, increased the rate of spread of the disease sharply. The powerful eruptions of the Sun raised the energy level to a peak, which managed to create many mutations, which bypassed the vaccines and increased the level of infection dramatically. As expected, the violence of the virus has dropped sharply!
  • The Sun emitted a significant solar flare, peaking at 11:35 a.m. EDT on Oct. 28, 2021. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, which watches the Sun constantly, captured an image of the event.
  • Reports say that a solar storm that erupted on the Sun on Dec. 20 might disrupt Christmas, 2021, as NASA warned of an incoming "impact" that could cause radio disruptions and G.P.S. issues.
  • At the beginning of 2022, several solar storms were recorded, not very strong, but with a short time difference.

 

The phenomenon of saw teeth like waves in the coronavirus outbreak is not accidental! The graph reflects aggregate data from all countries of the world. You will find charts with similar trends in most countries worldwide with a few exceptions.

The virus is forced to give up energy to create new mutations temporarily. (Unless it has an available external energy source such as solar flares)

The phenomenon of waves is consistent with reports of Spanish flu. (From 100 years ago and more)

The mathematical model is explained in the text.

This model can be understood, even without an understanding of mathematical analysis. 

Although this mathematical model is currently unsolvable, it allows for far-reaching insights. These equations are the result of the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Energy is not created out of anything. Mutations are an entropy process that must occur. Note: To achieve entropy and energy conservation altogether - the virus must perform many mutations until it reaches its maximum proliferation ability.

  1. The kinetic energy of the virus is expressed in two components, 1 its rate of proliferation, 2 its investment in energy at a given period in the production of new mutations, + the potential energy of the virus, which is expressed in its "violence" = equal to a unique universal Constant+ virus external energy absorbed from the environment in the form of specific solar flares during a certain period.
    • To make the variables consistent, they must be multiplied by universal coefficients that reflect their energetic status (I ignore them for illustration). They exist in formulas.
    • When we make a derivative of the whole equation by time, the universal coefficient resets (it does not change with time). This is a situation where we are left with 4 variables.
  2. The energy investment of the virus in producing new mutations is always positive at any given period. The number of energies invested in new mutations over time (which it takes for the virus to produce new mutations) will always be positive. (Greater than 0)
  3. The investment in producing new mutations results from optimizing a simultaneous equation, considering whether the virus has received energy from an external source. If the virus does not have an external energy source, it invests self-energy, mainly at the expense of its infectivity. (Hence also the phenomenon of infection waves that scientists are unable to explain)
  4. The investment in each period in new mutations is positively reflected in the virus's ability to increase its infection rate, but with a time difference. Investment in mutations is positive but declining. (Otherwise, the equation will not converge)
    • An example (not necessarily realistic) of a suitable function that reflects the relationship between the energy investment on mutations and the return on proliferation is a square root of X; it increases steadily (positive first derivative) but decreases (negative second derivative)
  5. During each new wave - the level of violence of the virus does not change. (Derivative of virus violence relative to time equal to 0)

The model I propose will provide a critical variable figure (the built-in change in the infectivity rate). It will allow for improved analysis of existing mathematical models.

Link: Compartmental models in epidemiology (Wikipedia) 

  • The most common mathematical model for epidemiological prediction is the S.I.R. (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered) model. The model includes a set of differential equations. The model assumes that someone who fell ill (or died) will not fall sick again. (Does not match reality) The rate of infection and recovery is not fixed; they depend on many variables. The model I propose does not stand on its own, it will be able to improve the existing models later on, but their level of complexity will remain high.

 

Summary and conclusions.

The mathematical solution of energy conservation equations is currently not possible (since the relationships between some of the variables are not presently known). However, far-reaching conclusions can be drawn even without a complete mathematical model.

  • The first and second law of thermodynamics causes a situation where the virus is constantly trying to increase its infection rate. (Maximum entropy) To achieve improved proliferation ability, it must produce mutations, which bypass the immune system and vaccines.
  • Still, the formation of new mutations costs it internal energy (in the absence of an available external energy source), which must be reflected in a temporary slowdown in infection rate. (This is the explanation for the phenomenon of infection waves) and at the level of violence of the virus. All this is because the energy available to the virus is limited. (Energy is not created out of anything) Intense solar flares can produce new mutations without any energetic relinquishment of the level of infection or the level of violence of the virus! Therefore, after intense solar flares, highly contagious waves of the virus arrived.

The mathematical model can form a theoretical basis for a series of new discoveries.

  • Since each virus has an energetic "fingerprint," it will be possible to map all viruses with their energy coefficient. It will be possible to try statistically to find out (using statistical regressions) the equation in which the virus produces the added value of the mutations. (Most comprehensive research) Using statistical analysis, it will be possible to map viral processes over the years. Such research will have practical, health, and economic implications.

Viruses have a very successful evasion strategy! But it stems from the laws of entropy (disorder), which are an integral part of natural processes.

  1. Morbidity waves of viruses are because the virus is "forced" to give up kinetic energy (infectivity) to produce new mutations. During each wave, the virus violence (potential energy) remains unchanged. 
  2. Over time, an increase in the ability to infect comes at the expense of a setback in the violence of the virus.
  3. The virus "should" in the process of optimization, regularly invest in producing new mutations. Further investment in mutations is beneficial, but it is declining. (Otherwise, the process does not converge)
  4. Strong solar flares, synchronized at the appropriate frequency, allow the virus to produce new mutations without sacrificing its violence, or reducing the production of new mutations. An inevitable conclusion is that we need to closely monitor solar flares and expect results at short intervals.

How are new strains of viruses created?

  • Creating a new virus strain is based on significant changes in the virus's code, which consume a lot of energy. The energy for creating a new strain cannot come only through the energy of the host cell - an external energy source is also required. Most often in the form of solar flares that release high-intensity electromagnetic radiation. 
  • The phenomenon of viral epidemics breaking out at the height of solar flares is not accidental. The amount of solar flares (not necessarily the intensity) is at its peak.

The fact that there are no very violent viruses that are also very contagious is no coincidence! These are very high energies, which are not within the energy signature range of viruses.

  • Imagine viruses like Sars covid-1 in 2002-2003, with mortality rates of about 9% breaking out today with the tremendous level of infection of COVID-19. The world would collapse only from panic! I argue that this is impossible on the energetic level. The extraordinarily violent virus gives up its level of infection (kinetic energy)

Do solar flares affect our immune system?

  • Strong solar flares may also affect the magnetic field in our body and the vortex around it and thus also affect our immune system. The subject is in its infancy and has not been researched in depth.

Those who are surprised by the fact that viruses run a brilliant optimization!

  • This is a topic for broad philosophical discussion. A mathematical expression is given everywhere in nature. Viruses are no exception.

 

The unexplained waves of infection of the coronavirus suggested a whole dimension missing - the energetic dimension. The waves of infectivity are reminiscent of a racing driver who accelerates on the descent when he knows that there is an ascent after it. Replacing its kinetic energy (velocity of motion) with potential energy. (Height)

This model needs further examination, validation, mathematical development, and statistical confirmation. At the same time, the findings I suggest have far-reaching methodological and practical implications in every possible aspect.

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