This post provides a brief review of the accelerated technological development that could create a new reality in the second half of the century, where the current socio-economic order may no longer be viable. It's ostensibly a long time away, but in historical terms, it's right here. It means that today's children and adolescents will grow up in a humanity significantly different from the current one, not only on the technological level but mainly on the socio-economic aspect.
- I did not provide a detailed analysis of the four main circles: society, economy, geopolitics, and technological and military capabilities. It is a deep analysis with many variables. I will address a few key points, primarily in the labor market.
My conclusions are based on in-depth discussions with the artificial intelligence DeepSeek. Although artificial intelligence has attempted to mitigate the conclusions, the inevitable outcome is a dramatic shift in the socio-economic order.
A series of other technological developments accompany the AI revolution.
As someone who extensively uses artificial intelligence, I can only emphasize that it exceeds all expectations, even though it is only in its first generation. Artificial intelligence can potentially replace nearly all jobs in clerical occupations, including those in banking, insurance, law, medical services, financial services, municipal services, education, community services, and other related fields. The primary gap between the experts is the time required to implement the changes. (Estimates range from 5-10 years to the first stage)
The impact on the labor market is already being felt, but tens of millions of workers are expected to lose their jobs within a decade.
- The claims that market forces will balance employment, as in previous revolutions, could exist as a single event, but not under these conditions of an aggregate event.
- The Industrial Revolution and the Internet Revolution dramatically increased global GDP and contributed to the well-being of many populations. The transition to urbanization and income-generating jobs did not lead to the establishment of a new socio-economic order.
The artificial intelligence revolution is closely related to home robotics and autonomous driving. It has a dramatic impact on the employment market.
- Industrial robots have been in use for decades, particularly in industries that require repetitive, routine work. Humanoid home robots must perform complex tasks while moving and understanding voice commands or agreed-upon signs. Such robots already exist but are not yet in serial production. They will become a routine consumer product in the coming years, and their price will steadily decline.
- Household robots will perform various cleaning tasks, cook to order, shop for us, assist with homework, and even help with diapering the baby. (Of course, you can continue with the household chores onwards)
Advanced robots can replace cleaning workers, repair, sew, perform construction tasks, handle heavy loads, guard, and provide security, among other tasks. A huge number of the human workforce could lose their jobs. Even an army of robotic soldiers, fearless, no longer sounds imaginary.
Autonomous driving already exists. What stops it is mainly the regulation and synchronization of communication between autonomous and non-autonomous driving vehicles.
- It is already quite clear to everyone that driving will become a hobby within the next decade or two. Cars will drive to their destination without a driver. Car synchronization will be implemented through an accident prevention protocol. Even those who drive a car (without autonomous driving) will be synced to the traffic automatically, using a dedicated communication chip.
We are talking about millions of drivers who will remain unemployed.
The available jobs will be adapted to a few with particularly high capabilities, especially in introducing new technologies. Regarding technological abilities, the average person will not have adequate replacement jobs.
- Small businesses may experience a sharp decline in demand due to the loss of income in large population sectors. The tech giants and their controlling shareholders will reap substantial benefits.
- Countries will experience a sharp decline in revenues from direct taxes on labor, as well as a decline in indirect taxes on consumption. The taxation of the tech giants is problematic, mainly due to their involvement in politics. Without effective taxation of tech giants, public coffers will suffer severe deficits, contributing to the already problematic debt burden.
Deep and prolonged structural unemployment, of tens of percent, is an event humanity has not experienced.
The existing socio-economic model is based on working as a salaried or self-employed individual.
Youth unemployment is a well-known phenomenon; they are often the first to be excluded from the workforce. However, deep adult unemployment creates a situation in which many households lose their main source of income. Without income and government support, the situation deteriorates easily.
The impact on the real estate market can also be dramatic!
- The office real estate market is expected to release a significant amount of space. The phenomenon is already felt with the transition to AI, but it has only begun. To prevent deterioration, offices will be repurposed for residential use, creating a price drop in the residential real estate sector. The residential housing market can deteriorate into a deep crisis if people lack employment.
- In such extreme scenarios, the collapse of banks, the largest lenders with problematic credit, is almost inevitable. From here, the road to economic chaos is short.
Fusion reactor technology is likely to become available within 20-25 years. It will enable clean electricity production without the need for polluting fuels. It will also have a significant geopolitical influence, which will benefit China.
Events that balance structural unemployment.
A dramatic decline in births is likely, but its effect is not immediate. Natural disasters, epidemics, and wars have a profound impact on society and the economy, but they are extremely destructive forces. Humanity today is capable of destroying the Earth and leaving it desolate.
- The risk of World War III increases significantly during periods of economic unrest and social disorder. World War III could break out due to an unplanned mass casualty event that triggers a dramatic reaction and sets off an unstoppable chain reaction. (A nightmare scenario is quite possible)
- Unstable regimes are likely to collapse, and with them, dictators. However, this entails enormous risks. Today's sophisticated weapons are often more destructive than those in World War II.
The claim that all leaders are sane and will avoid a third world war is partially true. The emotional reaction of one (reckless) captain can wreak havoc on all of humanity.
What would life on Earth look like if a socio-economic revolution occurred?
I used game theory models to create the socio-economic upheaval scenarios. The AI agreed with me on the mathematical conclusions, but proposed a hybrid model. (Possible, but less likely in my opinion) The two options that arise from the mathematical game theory model are at the extremes: (both maintain a stable state of Nash Equilibrium). The mathematical model assumes people who act rationally and with egoistic motives. The AI claimed that people also act out of emotion (a correct argument), but agreed that the assumption that a large population is egoistic is correct.
- A society controlled by the ruling minority. The tech companies and their leaders! The minority provides for the subsistence of the silent majority.
- They rule with a high hand, through laws and strict policing, with draconian punishment. Right! Like in science fiction movies. Rebellions are commonplace, but punishment is frightening.
- It is a nightmare scenario that is not suitable for an advanced 21st-century society.
- The second extreme option is complete equality in resource allocation. It is essential to emphasize that this is not communism.
- This option is currently impossible for humanity because it requires open borders, free immigration, unrestricted trade, and other similar measures. (At the moment, not a possible vision for humanity)
For us to achieve the vision of a world where all have equal distribution and welfare, several dramatic changes are necessary.
